{"id":8141,"date":"2025-11-24T14:39:25","date_gmt":"2025-11-24T20:39:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/integrityisr.com\/?p=8141"},"modified":"2026-08-17T14:56:21","modified_gmt":"2026-08-17T18:56:21","slug":"october-2022-integrity-insights","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/integrityisr.com\/ar\/october-2022-integrity-insights\/","title":{"rendered":"October 2022 – Integrity Insights"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

In This Issue:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Gas Pipeline Explosion in the Baltic Sea <\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chinese and Russian Ships Sighted Near Alaska<\/a><\/strong><\/strong><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Gas Pipeline Explosion in the Baltic Sea; Putin\u2019s Message to Europe<\/strong><\/h1>\n\n\n\n
\n
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\n

(Europe, NATO)<\/strong> Two significant events have numerous European countries bracing for a rough winter. First, the presumed sabotage of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 natural gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea; and second, the opening of the Euro Norway pipeline to Europe through the Baltic pipe. Early last week, Denmark and Sweden reported the discovery of four massive gas leaks on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 natural gas pipelines, two on the Swedish side and two on the Danish side.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

\n
\n

A Danish earthquake station on Bornholm Island registered the first signs of these explosions on September 26th. Sweden and Denmark both indicated blasts equivalent to \u201cseveral hundred kilograms of explosives\u201d caused the leaks. Task forces contained all four leaks by October 2nd<\/sup>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

NATO Issues Warning in Response<\/em><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
\n

The EU, NATO, and the governments of Germany, Poland, Sweden, and Denmark have all stated they believe the leaks were caused deliberately. NATO left the door open to possible military action, stating \u201cAll currently available information indicates that this is the result of deliberate, reckless, and irresponsible acts of sabotage \u2026any deliberate attack against Allies\u2019 critical infrastructure would be met with a united and determined response.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If deliberate, these events send Europe and the United States a clear message: Russia has the will, intent, and capability to not only destroy gas lines but other undersea pipelines, cables, and other subsurface equipment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tactics, Techniques, Procedures, and Motives<\/em><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Intelligence sources quoted in the German news magazine Der<\/em> Spiegel<\/em> believe the pipelines were hit in four places with at least 500kg\u2019s of TNT, the rough equivalent of a US Mark 83 1000 lb General Purpose bomb. Using seismic readings, the Germans calculated not only the power of the blasts, but estimate they occurred at depths of 70 and 90 meters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts are unsure how the explosives reached the pipeline, but have two initial working theories: use of a type of mini-sub; or a \u201cpipeline intervention gadget\u201d (PIG). Workers use such machines to clean and inspect within pipelines. In the weeks since the explosions, manned or unmanned submarine delivery seems less probable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Based on the estimated amount and weight of explosives, and support required, it seems less likely attackers used a submersible vehicle. Instead, experts are suggesting PIGs operating within the pipeline structure may have been used to plant or transport the bombs.  Regardless of method, the sophisticated nature of conducting such an attack \u2013 plus the power of the blasts \u2013 probably indicates a state power carried out the attacks. Russia remains a likely suspect, as Moscow has repeatedly taunted its capability to disrupt Europe\u2019s energy infrastructure. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a defiant September 2022 speech, the Washington Post reported that Putin seemed to foreshadow the explosions, threatening to cut off Europe of all Russian energy. Additionally, he seemed to lay the groundwork to accuse the West and US of not supplying needed equipment to repair the Nord 1 pipeline. Putin indicated if an explosion did occur, the blame would be on the Allies. \u201cNord Stream 1 is practically closed now,\u201d Putin said. \u201cThere is an oil leak there \u2014 it\u2019s a possibly explosive situation, a fire hazard. \u2026 Give us a turbine, and we will turn on Nord Stream 1 tomorrow.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe will not supply gas, oil, coal, heating oil \u2014 we will not supply anything,\u201d <\/em><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013 V. Putin, Sep. 8th, 2022<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
\n

Still, analysts cannot rule out underwater operations. For years, Russia invested heavily in science, equipment, and training for underwater operations, specifically intelligence operations and collections. They are very good at finding undersea cables and pipelines, having moved, tapped, and even sabotaged them in the recent past. In 2021, probable Russian actors cut cables linking underwater submarine detection sensors off the coast of northern Norway.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

\n

More recently, January 2022 surveys found a severed 800-mile long undersea fiber-optic line between Norway and the Svalbard archipelago. More than 2.5 miles of fiber optic and electrical cables were removed. This area, between Norway and the geographic North Pole, hosts a SvalSat communications service satellite ground station. This node is much in demand with polar-orbiting satellite operators, being one of only two data download stations.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Yantar is as a \u2018Special Purpose Ship<\/em>\u2019 and an \u2018Oceanographic vessel<\/em>\u2019. These are euphemisms for \u2018spy ship.\u2019 She is operated by Russia\u2019s secretive Main Directorate of Underwater Research (GUGI) who also operate Russia\u2019s \u2018special mission\u2019 submarines.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Increasing Energy to Europe<\/em><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
\n

October 1st<\/sup> signifies the start of the European heating season, and countries in northern and eastern Europe are bracing for multiple impacts. High natural gas prices, inflation, strained relations, and economic impacts \u2013 plus threats of nuclear war on NATO\u2019s western flank \u2013 could all directly hit much of Europe. It is no coincidence solving Europe\u2019s Russian energy dependence involves the <\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

\n

newly-opened Euro Norway pipeline from the Baltic to Poland.Significantly, gas started flowing from Norway via Denmark and the Baltic Sea just a day or two before the reported explosions. A product of Poland\u2019s announced plans for a future without dependance on Russian oil and gas, the resulting pipeline may have provided Putin motive.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Assessment<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Germans appear to be facing the toughest financial and energy challenges. Before Russia’s war in Ukraine, Germany depended on Russia for 55% of its natural gas. As of September 2022, Germany has been able to reduce that dependency to less than 10%. While measures such as buying gas from Norway and the Netherlands, and reducing overall gas consumption have helped, German citizens now pay quadruple the previous price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Chinese and Russian ships Sighted near Alaska<\/strong><\/strong><\/h1>\n\n\n\n
\n
\n

(Alaska, INDOPACOM)<\/strong> On September 19th, the Associated Press reported a U.S. Coast Guard ship on routine patrol in the Bering Sea came across a Chinese guided missile cruiser 86 miles north of Alaska\u2019s Kiska Island, in the Aleutian chain. The USCG cutter later discovered two other Chinese ships and four Russian naval vessels, including a destroyer, all in single formation within the area. This year on Russian Navy Day (July 30th<\/sup>), President Putin signed Russia\u2019s new Naval Doctrine. The new approach shifts the Arctic to the top Russian Navy operational priority, ahead of the Pacific second, and the Atlantic third \u2013 the latter being the former number one priority. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To help achieve its lucrative Arctic ambitions, Russia has been renewing its unique civilian fleet of nuclear-powered icebreakers. During the 2020 unveiling of their new fleet flagship, Arktika<\/em>, Russia proclaimed it as the world’s biggest and most powerful icebreaker. <\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

\n

This wasn\u2019t the first time the Chinese navy sailed so near Alaskan waters. In September 2021, US Coast Guard cutters in the Bering Sea and North Pacific Ocean encountered Chinese ships, some as close as 50 miles off the Aleutians. China has declared itself a \u201cnear Arctic\u201d state, and not to be outdone by Russia, recently announced plans to build the world\u2019s largest icebreaker. If completed, such a project indicates China is determined to press their Arctic ambitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Notably, these Chinese and Russian naval actions came just a month after NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned about China\u2019s interests and Russia\u2019s military buildup in the northern region. Following a historic first Canadian Arctic visit by a NATO Secretary General, Stoltenberg said \u201cRussia has set up a new Arctic Command. It has opened hundreds of new and former Soviet era Arctic military sites including airfields and deep-water ports.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Assessment<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

When Finland and Sweden join the alliance, seven of eight Arctic nations will be NATO members, leaving Russia as the only non-NATO nation. US and alliance shoring-up of Arctic diplomatic and military efforts will undoubtedly generate Russia and China counteractions, as multiple parties pursue economic and military influence in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

CONTACT US<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
\n

DANIELLE STORAN, PMP<\/strong>
CEO & President
danielle.storan@integrityisr.com\/<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\n
\n

MISSION <\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Integrity ISR provides innovative solutions
for C4ISR and Space strategy, training,
operations, analysis, and exploitation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

\n

VISION<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Strengthen US and global security by building ISR and Space capabilities, increasing interoperability, and fostering long-term partnerships through security cooperation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In This Issue: Gas Pipeline Explosion in the Baltic Sea Chinese and Russian Ships Sighted Near Alaska Gas Pipeline Explosion in the Baltic Sea; Putin\u2019s Message to Europe (Europe, NATO) Two significant events have numerous European countries bracing for a rough winter. First, the presumed sabotage of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 natural gas […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":145379797,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"{title}\n\n{excerpt}\n\n{url}","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1410],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8141","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-newsroom"],"acf":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paiUyX-27j","jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/integrityisr.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8141","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/integrityisr.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/integrityisr.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/integrityisr.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/145379797"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/integrityisr.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8141"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/integrityisr.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8141\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8142,"href":"https:\/\/integrityisr.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8141\/revisions\/8142"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/integrityisr.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8141"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/integrityisr.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8141"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/integrityisr.com\/ar\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8141"}],"curies":[{"name":"????? ??","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}