What Kosmos 2612’s Approach to ICEYE-X36 Does and Doesn’t Tell Us
Plane changes in low Earth orbit are rare, because they are expensive. That single fact is the key to reading the Kosmos (Cosmos) 2612 story, and it is why the decisive signal in this episode appeared months before the close approach that drew headlines. In October, Russia maneuvered Cosmos 2612 (catalog 68762) into the orbital plane of ICEYE-X36 (catalog 59103), a commercial Synthetic Aperture Radar satellite that supports Ukraine, and began closing the range. The maneuvering was deliberate, efficient, and precisely observable. What Russia intends to do from that position is not observable at all. Holding those two statements apart is the entire discipline of this kind of analysis, so […]
February 2022 – Integrity Insights
February 2022 On 24 Feb 2022, Russian forces invaded Ukraine from three sides, on the orders of President Vladimir Putin. This major campaign involves more than 150,000 Russian military personnel facing an adversary of 200,000 Ukrainian military personnel, with additional National Guard and Border Patrol forces numbering over 100,000. After three hard fought days, Ukrainian forces are offering significantly greater resistance than what Russia planned for and expected. Ukrainian have so far stymied Russian attempts to take Kyiv to (1) dismantle Ukraine’s ability to threaten Russian security; and (2) restore what Putin has called the former Russian empire based on pre-WWI lines. Our IIOC team assesses three factors as key […]
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