Written by Greg Gillinger
22 May 2026: Russia conducted significant plane change maneuvers with at least 4 of its 6 Cosmos satellites. Plane change maneuvers are rare in space operations, especially in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) due to the required energy–which equates to a significant fuel investment. In this case, the fuel required to conduct such a maneuver is ~105-106m/sec. The maneuvers brought the 4 satellites into nearly co-planar orbits with ICEYE-X36 (59103) which is also inclined 97.8° and is a Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imaging satellite. ICEYE is a Finnish-American aerospace and data company that designs, builds, and operates the world’s largest constellation of SAR satellites. ICEYE has been supporting Ukrainian military operations against Russia since the beginning of the conflict in 2022. We do not know Russia’s intentions or the capabilities of these particular satellites, however maneuvering into a co-planar orbit is alarming. Plane matching is the first (and most fuel expensive) step to conducting Rendezvous Proximity Operations (RPO) likely necessary for the Russian satellites to target (kinetically or non-kinetically) ICEYE-X36. We also do not know the satellites’ total fuel capacity, however the expenditure of ~105 m/sec is evidence the satellites are capable of conducting high-energy maneuvers. This capability is not common for satellites conducting typical earth observation, signal collection or communications missions.
Details:
Between 14-20 May 2026 the following Russian satellites increased their inclinations 0.8° (from 97.0° to 97.8°): 1) Cosmos 2610 (68758); 2) Cosmos 2611 (68759); 3) Cosmos 2612 (68762); 4) Cosmos 2613 (68763). Cosmos 2614 (68764) appears to be in the midst of a similar maneuver. The Russian satellites are orbiting ~547km above the Earth (<2.5km of ICEYE-X36) and have an eccentricity between .001-.002 (ICEYE-X36 eccentricity is .002).
Plane matching requires objects to have nearly equal inclination (orbit tilt) and Right Ascension of the Ascending Node (RAAN) (orbit twist). The 14-20 May maneuvers seem to have only impacted the inclination, however Russia launched Cosmos 2610/11/12/13 into orbits with <0.5° RAAN offset from ICEYE-X36. With the inclination changing maneuvers the four satellites are now effectively plane matched with ICEYE-X36. Cross-track ranges between the Russian satellites and ICEYE-X36 range from 0.5-22kms. Russian space operators are now in position to conduct RPO with ICEY-X36 with minor adjustments in satellite eccentricity (radial track) and average altitudes (in track).
Background:
Russia launched Cosmos 2609-2614 on 17 April 2026 using a Soyuz 2.1b with a Volga upper stage. This was the first time Russia had paired the Soyuz 2.1b with the Volga upper stage and the configuration can deliver ~6,000kg to a 550km sun-synchronous orbit. Subtracting dispensers/adapters (typically 5–15% of payload mass, so ~300–900 kg for 6 satellites) this leaves roughly 5,100–5,700 kg for the 6 satellites. However, Russia deployed the satellites into two distinct orbital groups:
- Group 1 (98.25° inclination): Cosmos 2609 — ~495–550 km
- Group 2 (96.95° inclination): Cosmos 2610–2614 — ~547 km
This plane separation required additional Volga fuel requirements, which would further reduce available payload mass. The satellites in the two groups may also be different sizes.
ICEYE-X36 was launched March 4, 2024 from Vandenberg on a SpaceX Falcon 9. It’s registered under ICEYE US, has a mass of ~90 kg and is one node in a 44+ satellite constellation that Ukraine can task. ICEYE resolution can be as good as 0.5 m in spot mode covering a 5x5km area. Other modes offered are as follows: 10x10km spot at 1m resolution; 50x50km strip at 3m resolution; and 100x100km area scan at 15m resolution. In 2022 ICEYE donated one of its satellites, the “People’s Satellite,” to Ukraine, however this was prior to ICEYE-X36’s launch and the earlier ICEYE satellite’s identity remains unknown. On 26 June 2024, Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate (GUR) said it was making good use of SAR imagery provided by it’s “People’s Satellite.” Specifically Ukraine had used 38% of the nearly 4,200 (as of Jun 2024) images were used to strike Russian targets.
Editor’s Comments: Russia has invested significant fuel to maneuver at least 4 of its satellites into co-planar orbits with ICEYE-X36. I should also note that the maneuvers also decreased the cross track distance from ICEYE-37 (59102), but not to the same extent as with X36. It appears Cosmos 2614 may also maneuver to match the other 4 satellites in its group. The situation certainly warrants additional monitoring. Changes in SMA from the Russian satellites are necessary to conduct persistent RPO against X36. X36 is a small satellite (90kg) and likely lacks the fuel/maneuverability to respond to any co-orbital threat.
Russia has warned previously of its intent to target commercial space capabilities assisting Ukraine. On 27 October 2022, Konstantin Vorontsov, deputy director of the Russian foreign ministry’s department for non-proliferation and arms control, spoke at a United Nations meeting on outer space security. He directly criticized Western nations’ use of commercial satellites in military operations and declared that commercial systems serving as “quasi-civilian infrastructure may become a legitimate target for retaliation.” Vorontsov further remarked that the West’s use of commercial satellites was “an extremely dangerous trend that … has become apparent during the latest developments in Ukraine.” These comments added fuel to previous declarations that Russia could target space networks operated by private companies.
Nearly four years after making these statements, Russia is showing signs of carrying out this threat.
Meet the Author: Greg Gillinger: With 26 years in the U.S. Air Force and a career spanning strategic intelligence, space operations, and national security, Greg Gillinger brings unparalleled expertise to Integrity ISR. As Senior Vice President for Strategy & Development, Greg plays a pivotal role in advancing Space ISR capabilities and shaping the future of intelligence operations.
From leading ISR divisions at 14th Air Force and CSpOC to serving on the National Security Council, Greg’s experience reinforces Integrity ISR’s mission—delivering elite training, cutting-edge strategy, and operational excellence to defense forces worldwide.
We’re honored to have Greg’s leadership guiding our mission and proud to feature his insights through Integrity Flash.
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